After the events of yesterday we pivot back to Australia. The Poliquant Australia poll average and seat projection was updated yesterday after the release of Essential’s weekly release of its 2-week rolling sample poll. The details of the poll can be found at the Essential Research website. The primary vote figures of the poll were Coalition 46%, Labor 37%, Greens 9%, Others 8%. The primary vote shift from the previous Essential poll Coalition -2%, Labor +1%, Greens steady, Others +1%. Due the large Essential poll sample, this shifted the poll average to the smallest national margin between the major parties all year of 5%. Other important features of the current poll average and seat projection worth noting are:
Labor in front in SA
Labor has taken the lead on a TPP basis in South Australia. However this is from a high base of a 53.2% TPP at the 2010 election. The TPP swing to the Coalition is largest in all of the mainland states in South Australia. Nevertheless Labor leads the TPP In 2 mainland states.
State vs Federal
The interesting feature of the SA result is that federal voting intentions on a TPP basis are running ahead of state voting intentions on the same basis in Labor’s favour by 7%. Below is a table comparing all mainland states TPP with the recent mainland state Newspolls.
We should note that we are comparing polling taken during the same timeframe. There is a time lag between the current federal polling averages and the state Newspoll conducted between July and September of this year, however this is the best comparison we can make given the data available.
As you can see, Labor’s federal vote is running ahead of its state counterpart in South Australia , where an aging state Labor government is in office. Labor’s federal vote is also running ahead its state vote in Queensland and New South Wales where unpopular state Labor governments were washed away in landslides in the not too recent past. Federal Labor’s relative advantage over its state Labor counterparts is still present once the effects of OPV are taken into account in Queensland and New South Wales.
Meanwhile in Western Australia there is little difference between the state and federal TPP levels of the major parties. In Victoria federal Labor trails state Labor’s level of support.
Give that we are only using a single poll as the basis of our assessment of TPP levels in the states, we should apply a +/- 3% margin of error the state figures. Once this applied the only significant differences are South Australia and New South Wales.
It is instructive that federal Labor is more popular than state Labor in New South Wales, which indicates that federal Labor is avoiding the post-meltdown malaise of the the state vote but is not yet in a position in New South Wales conducive to winning the election.
New South Wales – Labor’s Defensive Battleground
If there was an election today, of Labor’s net loss of 7 seats, 5 would come from New South Wales. The swing in New South Wales to the Coalition is not the largest of the state swings; however New South Wales has more seat with TPP Margins of 3% or less than any other state. Hence New South Wales is Labor’s defensive battleground at this point in time.
As always you can check out the full details of the poll average and seat projection by clicking on the Australia tab above.