The release of fresh Nielsen and Essential Research polls today has triggered an update to the Poliquant Australia Poll Average and Seat Projection. The full details can be found by clicking the Australia tab above.
Below the chamber graphic are a few thoughts on the current poll average numbers.
With a fresh Nielsen poll (and its state sub-samples) comes a fresh update of the state deviations to the national poll average. As frequent observers of the poll average are aware, the previous three months of state sub-samples in national polls are used to generate the mainland state figures in the poll average.
The impact of today’s Nielsen polls on the state swings are minimal. Western Australia, which was previously the state with the smallest swing to the Coalition on a TPP basis now shares this honour with Queensland.
South Australia, which had the largest TPP swing to the Coalition has now slipped behind New South and Victoria in this regard. The two most populous states now share the position of the states with the largest TPP swing to the Coalition. As noted in previous posts, NSW is the key state in terms of Labor seat defence and Coalition seat gains at the next election as this is the state with the most Labor seats at TPP margins under 3%, so it is fortuitous that the Coalition has its largest swing in the First State.
The Green Vote – Trend Reversal
Since the parliamentary debate on asylum seekers in late June the Greens House of Reps primary vote in the polls has been on a downward trend from a place in the low teens to around 9%.This support fall has been reflected in elections around the country where the Green vote has not met expectations and/or suffered a decline from the previous election.
However this downward trend has ended and may be reversing. In today’s poll average update, the Greens have hit 10.5%, which is the Greens highest primary vote in the poll average since 28 August. A chart of the national Green primary vote in the Poliquant Australia Poll Average is set out below. Please click to enlarge.
As you can see there is plenty of noise in the chart, but the trend in the chart since late June is clear, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The move in the Green poll average primary vote to 10.5% is the first move out of this trend by breaking a “lower high”. Is this just a flash in pan or an important turning point for the Greens? Once again we must wait for further polls to confirm. However as we move into the summer polling hibernation period, a more apt question is whether the Green vote will emerge above 10% in the new year.