The Australian has published the Newspoll quarterly aggregates for the Oct-Dec quarter in today’s edition of the national newspaper. The online write-up of the Newspoll quarterly aggregates can be found here. (paywall)
The release of the Newspoll quarterly aggregates has triggered a change in the Poliquant Poll Average and Seat Projection in terms of the relative state swings. Full details can be found by clicking the Australia tab above.
The state of the swings
The table below sets out the changes to the mainland states Poll Average TPP swings to the Coalition after the change to the Newspoll state aggregates. The big change has been the relative shift of NSW towards Labor and the relative shifts of Queensland and South Australia towards the Coalition.
In terms of swing, the NSW TPP swing to the Coalition is less than the national swing. Despite this, NSW is still the state with the largest number of Labor losses due to a concentration of marginal seats at margins of 3% or below and the NSW being the state with the largest number of seats.
Despite much press about the fall from the stratosphere of LNP state voting support, the Queensland swing has lengthened for the Coalition moving the state away from the position of Labor’s best performing state in attenuating the national swing to the Coalition, that title now goes to WA.
South Australia as the only mainland state with a Labor government maintains its position with largest mainland state TPP swing to the Coalition. This swing puts Labor’s two most marginal seats in SA, Hindmarsh 6.1% and Adelaide 7.5% in play and the seat projection is current showing 1 Labor loss in SA.
Victoria and WA maintain their relative TPP swing positions, whilst we are still without hard public data for Tasmania and thus cannot properly estimate the swing there, although other anecdotal and patchy data evidences is suggesting a large swing to the Liberals in Tasmania.
Today we have inserted into the Australia seat projection the seat ranges which have been inserted into the state seat projections in the past few days. You can find these ranges at the top of the chamber graphic on the Australia tab. A snapshot of the seat ranges diagram is set out below.
As you can see these are a little more complex than the state seat ranges used in the past few days and bear a little explanation.
The inner seat range, which in the above table is marked 85-93, termed “seat deviation” is the range of seats that a party can win within a 95% probability given the sum of the individual seat probabilities returned by the seat projection give the precise poll average figures. We have obtained this seat range by a Monte Carlo simulation.
However the poll average itself has its own margin of error as it is a poll of polls. The 5 polls currently in the national poll average compromise in total 6022 respondents. This implies a current margin of error for the poll average of 1.3%.
The outer seat range, which in the above table is marked 80-99 and is termed poll deviation is a composite of 95% probability seat ranges given the high and low points of the poll average MoE (54%+/- 1.3%), which in the present poll average is 52.7% & 55.3% Coalition TPP. The low point of the Monte Carlo generated seat range for lower MoE bound and the high point of the Monte Carlo generated seat range for high MoE bound are used in this outer seat range.
All in all, while the current seat projection indicates a Coalition majority of 28, this is only the central forecast, a final election result could fall anywhere between a Coalition majority of 10 or 48.