As the end of 2012 draws near it’s time to look back at some of the more meaty analysis posts which have graced the blog this year. As the year has progressed the blog has attracted new readers, so some may find these posts new as they were posted before they first visited the blog. If this looks like a end of year wrap up post to you, do not worry, new posts will continue to be posted at Poliquant over the summer.
Below is a short description and a link to the 11 most in depth posts of Poliquant in 2012. The link is embedded in the title for each post.
This post evaluated the fortunes of previous Right-wing minor parties in Queensland state elections since 1992 ahead of the 2012 Queensland state election. The post estimate that there was a natural 8-15% state-wide vote for such a minor party.
This series of posts evaluated the KAP vote in the 2012 Queensland state election, specifically from which major party the vote came from and the near term future for the party.
During the current UK parliamentary term, the right-wing eurosceptic United Kingdom Independence Party has gained support in the polls due to right-wing voters dissatisfaction with the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition Government and the decline of the Liberal Democrats a third force of UK politics. This April post looked at the demographic basis of UKIP support in the polls at that time.
This post examined in which constituencies UKIP could elect MPs at a General Election.
This post looked the effects in a House of Reps election if Labor placed the Liberals above the Greens on their HTV.
This post looked at calculating a status quo result for by-elections in the absence of single major party. In this post the absence of the Liberals for the Melbourne by-election is estimated.
This post sets out the seats in play in a federal election if the national vote is 50-50.
The post investigates the historical changes in polling due to the change in the federal leaders of the major parties.
A November post setting out a projection of a new Senate based on then current polling.
A post investigating the effect of large swings to the Coalition in Western Sydney and Tasmania and the effect that Labor will need over 51% of the TPP for victory if this occurs.
A post looking at the electoral effect of a bolstered third force in Queensland politics in the form of the KAP and a Palmer Party.