Essential Research conducted 3 state voting intention polls for the mainland east coast states over the November –December period. The full details of the polls can be found at Poll Bludger where William Bowe is also on summer poll watching duties.
Below are the state seat projections for each of the three polls.
Primary Vote Figures: LNP 41%, Labor 35%, KAP 7%, Greens 8%, Others 9%
TPP: 53-47% LNP
Sample Size: 719
The above seat projection is the worst for the LNP since the election with a majority of 11. This is due to a high Labor primary vote, the highest this year at 35% and a relatively low KAP vote at 7%. The LNP vote in this poll is also the lowest of the year but not by much at only 41%. The last 3 state polls had the LNP primary of at 41.9% or 42%.
A table containing all state polls and seat projections since August 30 is set out below.
The hypothetical election probabilities based on these figures are set out in a pie chart below. These figures are of note only insomuch they show a small probability that the LNP would not win a parliamentary majority on the Essential figures.
New South Wales
Primary Vote Figures: Liberal/National Coalition 51%, Labor 31%, Greens 8%, Others 10%
TPP: 60-40% Liberal/National Coalition
Sample Size: 1,386
The only change in this poll from the state election results nearly 2 years ago is a Labor rise of 5% in the primary vote at the expense of the Greens and Others. This is reflected in the seat projection with a switch of 5 seats from the Coalition to Labor.
With Alex Greenwich’s victory in the Sydney by-election 2 months ago, the state seat of Sydney is removed from the major party pool of seats and assigned to Others automatically. This will remain the case until any polling is released publicly that would indicated the Mr Greenwich would lose the seat.
There is no need for a hypothetical election probability chart for this poll.
Primary Vote Figures: Liberal/National Coalition 43%, Labor 39%, Greens 11%, Others 7%
TPP: 50-50% Tie
Sample Size: 1,170
The 50-50 split in TPP terms returns a narrow Labor majority of 4 in the seat projection. The above seat projection is based on the current electoral boundaries and does not account for sophomore effects. The latter caveats indicate that the thin Labor majority indicted by the seat projection is ultra fragile.
While we cannot account for future boundary changes we can account for sophomore effects by assuming that all MPs elected for the first time recontest in 2014. Given this assumption the below table shows the differing seat projections and hypothetical election results probabilities for differing levels of sophomore surge.
As you can see the sophomore surge can alter the outcome of a hypothetical election on the primary vote levels indicated by the Essential Poll. On current boundaries the Liberal-National Government can survive a 50-50 election if all of their marginal seats first term MPs recontest. But the next election will be fought on different boundaries; the outcome of the redistribution will be keenly anticipated as to any notional changes it delivers.