The Australian has again given us some summer poll reading by publishing a New South Wales state voting intention Newspoll in today’s edition. The poll was taken progressively over the November-December period.
The topline primary vote figures for the poll of 1,297 New South Wales voters are Liberal/National Coalition 45%, Labor 29%, Green 11%, Others 15%. The TPP estimated by Newspoll was 59% Coalition. We estimate the poll’s margin of error at 2.7%. The full poll details and the accompanying article can be found at The Australian. (pay wall)
Below is the seat projection from today’s NSW state voting intention Newspoll.
The central forecast of the seat projection indicates a smashing win for the Liberal-National Coalition in a hypothetical election based on the Newspoll figures, however given the size of 2011 election win it would still represent a 9 seat gain for Labor from the Coalition based on the central forecast. The Coalition would still garner a healthy majority of 27 based on these figures.
For today’s NSW seat projection we have used the seat range method from the federal seat projection. The seat ranges can be found on the top of the graphic for either major party. There are two seat ranges:
Seat deviation range: the seat variation expected with a 95% probability given the primary vote poll figures.
Poll deviation range: the seat variation expected with a 95% probability at the upper and lower bounds of the poll’s margin of error.
As you can see the poll deviation range is quite wide with Coalition majorities of 11 and 43 and all points in between falling within this wider range. However this range is designed to take in the range of seat distributions that fall within the margin of error of today’s Newspoll which includes Coalition TPP’s of 55.8% & 62.1%, so the width of the range is expected.
However, we can get a more accurate gauge of NSW state vote intention by combining today’s Newspoll with the Essential poll which we looked at a few days ago given that the latter poll was also taken over the November-December 2012 period.
Poll Average and Seat Projection
Below are the tables setting out the poll average of NSW state voting intention. The average is weighted by sample size. It is this average and the subsequent seat projection which is the most precise estimate of current NSW state voting intention based on public polling.
As you can see the Essential was more favourable for the major parties in terms of the primary vote and ultimately more favourable for the Coalition in terms of TPP. This makes the average slightly more favourable for the Coalition at a state-wide TPP of 59.9% which would indicate a TPP swing to Labor of 4.3% since the 2011 election.
The seat projection based on the poll average is set out below.
The central forecast of our seat projection based on the polls taken in the November- December period is a Coalition majority of 31, which indicates a gain of 7 seats for Labor from the Coalition. The seat gain for Labor can range from 4 to 10 to given the current poll average. This range of Labor gains expands to 0 and 14 once the MoE of the poll average, 1.9% is taken into account.
If a NSW election was held at the end of last year, the most likely outcome was that Labor would make limited inroads on the Coalition majority.
State vs Federal Polling Position in NSW
There has been a lot of press that the poll position of the Labor Federal Government in New South Wales is being dragged down by the woes of NSW Labor. It is worthwhile to have a look at the above NSW state poll average compared with the NSW component of Poliquant Australia poll average. A table is below.
An important point that needs to be made is that the state poll average TPP needs be recalibrated with the federal CPV preference flows so as to allow a comparison of equivalent figures. As you can see the state TPP increases for Labor by 2 percentage points once federal CPV preference flows are used.
With a like and like comparison between federal and state polling figures, Federal Labor is running ahead of NSW Labor by about 3 percentage points after preferences. This margin is significant and it indicates that some voters are distinguishing between NSW and Federal Labor.
However, given that Labor needs to hold on to all of its seats and win a few more to stay in office, any downward pull that NSW Labor’s troubles exerts on Federal Labor’s popularity may be the difference between victory and defeat at this year’s federal election.