This morning The Courier Mail published a Galaxy state voting intention for Queensland. The primary vote figures for the poll were LNP 44%, ALP 33%, Grn 9%, KAP 7%, Others 7%. The reported TPP was 56% for the LNP. The poll surveyed 800 respondents which equates to an implied MoE of 3.5%.
The poll was taken over Wednesday and Thursday of this week
A seat projection based on the primary vote shares for the parties indicated by the poll is set out below. The methodology of the seat projection can be found in this post.
As this poll may very well be
the last Queensland state poll of the year (See update below), it is worth looking back at all of our seat projections over the past three months to observe a wider picture of the state of the parties. A table is set out below.
A table of poll results over the past three months is also set out below.
Today’s poll is on the lower end of results for LNP in the past 3 months. The LNP was always going to come down from the stratospheric high of 78 seats at the March election. Today’s seat projection would indicate a loss of 20 seats for the LNP if an election was held now, which sounds dramatic, but the LNP can still afford to lose another 13 seats and still remain on the Treasury benches.
As we head into the summer polling and politics recess it will be interesting to see what happens to the parties vote given the recent string of bad news for the LNP government by way of what the Courier Mail terms as “nepotism and integrity scandals”. The absence of political news over the summer break may work to the advantage of the LNP.
As for Labor, any increase of support is welcome, however it has been garnered off the back of the Governments actions. The fate of Labor is tied to that of the Government.
Katter’s Australian Party should be happy with their current polling support which has remained in the high single digits after its 11.7% debut at the March election. This is a good base to build support from given that they will be a recipient of right-wing protest votes at the next election.
UPDATE: According to the tweets of Mark Ludlow, Brisbane Bureau Chief of the AFR, ReachTEL was in the field polling Queensland state voting intention last night. Expect another Queensland poll shortly.