Channel Seven News in Brisbane has commissioned a fresh Queensland state voting intention poll from ReachTEL which will be broadcast in their 6 pm bulletin tonight. Queensland readers should tune in.
As has become habit on this site we shall conduct a seat projection based on the primary vote figures of the ReachTEL poll soon after its release. Given that there was a Galaxy poll published yesterday in the Courier Mail, we shall also do a seat projection based on an average of the two Queensland state polls released this weekend.
So that we can compare tonight’s ReachTEL poll with previous Queensland state polling here again are the tables of Queensland polling for the past three months and the associated seat projections.
Ray Hopper’s Defection to the KAP
As many of you are aware MP for Condamine, Ray Hopper has left the LNP for the Katter’s Australian Party. For now in the seat projection we shall keep Condamine in the major party contest in the absence of any polling or other evidence that would indicate that Condamine would fall to the KAP.
Come back soon after 6pm Brisbane time when we will post the Queensland seat projections.
ReachTEL Poll Results
Primary Votes (%): LNP 42 , ALP 34.2 , KAP 8.9 , Grn 9.5 , Others 5.4
TPP (%) (Poliquant estimate): LNP 53.8 ALP 46.2
Full poll details at http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog
Firstly, the seat projection based on the ReachTEL poll only.
Here is the poll average of the two Queensland state polls released this weekend.
Finally the seat projection based on the two polls.
Tonight’s ReachTEL poll was the worst for the LNP and the best for Labor all year. One could say that the LNP vote is in free fall considering that a first term government has lost nearly one in six of its voters since the election just 8 months ago. However the LNP is still in front and it is a long way until the 2015 election, like a parachutist whose journey is mostly free fall but ends up in a safe landing, the LNP can still come out of its present position with a second term due to the size of its election victory this year and the fact that it controls the levers of power.
However, the current poll position for the LNP government now makes it vulnerable to rebellion by its rural MP’s and voters to the KAP. Since the establishment of the KAP nearly 18 months ago, the impending landslide LNP victory at the 2012 election and the size of its opinion poll lead has pushed the KAP out of its calculus for governing. The LNP could afford to ignore the KAP and plead “just vote 1″ to the voters. Now with the threat of further defections to the KAP as alluded by Ray Hopper, in all likelihood from blue ribbon LNP (former National) seats, 55 seats could slip into the high 40′s very easily and a further small shift away from the LNP state-wide could see the LNP majority slip form its grasp. even if further defections to the KAP do not materialise, the KAP is still a viable party that can win seats in rural areas from the LNP where Labor cannot.
Now that the honeymoon is well and truly over for the LNP, and with the strengthening of the KAP forces, a new and unique electoral calculus will emerge in Queensland state politics which all parties will have to deal with. We will assess this new electoral calculus in the next few days.