With polling for the year almost complete it is worthwhile to look at the high and low points of the polling fortunes for the major parties. Below is a the Poliquant Poll Average chart marking the rise and fall of the Coalition national TPP vote since 1 February this year.
Those readers who are keen consumers of irony will notice that we are pretty much back where we were at 1 February, on that day the poll average Coalition TPP was 54.5%, today it stands at 54.2%. In the interim federal politics was filled with much colour and movement of the fierce combat kind and the poll average Coalition TPP moved 3.9% towards the Coalition to 58.4% on 8 May, just prior to the Federal Budget. The events during this period included the Labor Leadership ballot in late February and the landslide LNP Queensland election win in late March. The seat projection and state swings based on 8 May poll average figures are set out below.
If replicated at an election this result, a Coalition majority of 70 would have been record breaking for the Coalition in several respects;
- The largest number of House of Representatives seats won by a single party/coalition
- The largest Government House of Representatives majority won by a single party/coalition
- The largest proportion of House of Representatives seats won by a single party/coalition
- The largest number of House of Representatives seats gained at a single federal election by a single party/coalition absent an expansion of the parliament.
- The largest national TPP won by a victory party/coalition since the 1943 Labor-Curtin Wartime landslide.
However for the next six months Labor rallied after a May budget aimed at its base and a the introduction of the carbon tax on 1 July which proved that for this issue the bark was worse than its bite. The poll average improved for Labor to the point that it was only trailing the Coalition by 5 % on the TPP, 47.5 -52.5% on 7 November. The seat projection and state swings based on the 7 November poll average figures is set out below.
The Coalition majority was slashed from 70 in early May to 16 in early November. The Labor House of Representatives contingent had gone from the spectre of being nearly halved to suffering only 7 losses.
However this movement has stalled in November for Labor and this week’s relatively favourable polls for the Coalition from Newspoll and Essential Research has restored the pink to the Coalition’s poll average fortunes with a rise in the in Coalition TPP to 54.2% and and more healthy projected House of Representatives majority of 28. As always full details can be found by clicking the Australia tab above
With very few polls to come this year, it looks like the high and low water marks for the majors in 2012 are now set. Labor’s polling position will need to improve in 2013 to have a chance of victory. As noted yesterday campaign poll movements have favoured the underdog in the past four campaigns. The probabilities favour such narrowing but it is no certainty.