NOTE: Essential Media released their weekly poll of federal voting intentions today, triggering an update of the Poliquant Australia Poll Average and Seat Projection. Click on the Australia tab above for full details.
Congratulations to US President Barack Obama who has won another term of office today. After tracking the swing state polls for the last month, it would be remiss of us not to compare the final 7-day average of the swing state polls with the results which almost complete save late reporting polling booths and the counting of provisional ballots and late returning postal ballots. In any event the results cake is almost baked and so we will make the comparison. Please see the table below.
As you can see, at this stage, President Obama ran ahead of the poll average in most swing states, with the exception of North Carolina and Ohio.
However, we should make allowance for a combined margin of error of 1.4 % for the 7 day poll average given that it is an accumulation of polls and sample sizes. For uniformity sake we will assume a sample size of 5000 voters. Only in Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire , Iowa and Virginia did President Obama beat the poll average once the MoE is taken into account.
All in all the polls were slightly unkind to Obama, however they were accurate in indicating the winner. The 7-day poll average indicated the ultimate winner of the state for all states called by the US television networks at this point. The only state that is uncalled by the US television networks at this point, Florida, was the state with the smallest 7 day poll average lead going into election day.
We will revisit this table when final results are declared for the swing states.