The Australian published a bi-monthly Newspoll of Victorian state voting intentions in today’s edition. The online article accompanying the poll with the tables can be found here. (paywall)
The poll of 1,162 Victorian voters returned primary vote figures of Labor 38%, Coalition 36%, Greens 16% and Others 10%. The state-wide TPP was pegged at 55% for the Labor Opposition.
The poll taken over the November-December period repeated the previous bad news for the Liberal/National Coalition Government in the last edition of the poll taken over the September-October period with a status quo result in TPP terms.
The seat projection from the above poll is set out below.
The seat projection reflects Labor’s dominant position in this poll with the central forecast returning a Labor majority of 18. Even taking account the poll margin of error in the poll deviation range, Labor still forms majority government at the low water mark of this range with a majority of 4.
Greens supporters will be pleased with the high 16% primary vote in today’s Newspoll. However the Labor-Greens TCP seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote are automatically assigned to Labor under the seat projection and are kept out of the major party seat pool. These seats will switch to the Greens if any public polling for these seats indicate a Green lead, but no such evidence is currently available.
While Newspoll is indicating a large Labor poll lead, what does the totality of the polling for the November-December period indicate?
Poll Average and Seat Projection
Over the November-December period three polls were taken, the above mentioned Newspoll, an Essential poll progressively taken over the same period and a JWS poll taken on November 21.
A poll average weighted by sample size is set out in the below tables.
The above poll average indicates a much closer contest than today’s Newspoll figures. The seat projection derived from the poll average figures set out below also shows a tight contest.
While the central forecast of the above seat projection indicates a thin Labor majority of 4, a Coalition win is contemplated by the seat ranges.
Based on all the available evidence the Victorian polling state of play is much closer than today’s Newspoll indicates.